The short answer
- Often yes, but the math changed. With SCE or SDG&E, new solar is paid little for midday exports, so it pays off by covering your own use, especially evenings, which usually means adding a battery.
- The federal tax credit for buyers is gone for systems finished after Dec 31, 2025, so buying costs about 30% more than it did in 2025. Leases and PPAs still carry a federal credit (claimed by the company).
- LADWP and some city utilities still credit exports at retail, so solar alone often pays back fastest there.
- Act on dates, not pressure: the property-tax exclusion for new solar ends for systems finished after Dec 31, 2026, and SCE's extra export credit shrinks for later sign-ups.
What changed in 2023 and 2026
Since Apr 15, 2023, new SCE and SDG&E solar customers go on net billing (the "Solar Billing Plan", often called NEM 3.0). Exports earn hourly credits based on the utility's avoided cost, usually far below what you pay for power, while what you use from your panels directly still saves the full price. Then on Jan 1, 2026 the federal 25D credit ended for homeowners who buy (IRS).
Both changes push the same way: a system pays when it covers your own electricity, at the hours power is most expensive (4–9 p.m. on every SCE and SDG&E plan). That's why nearly every new system now has a battery.
When solar is most likely to pay
- Your bills are high (a large home, a pool, an EV, or a heat pump), and much of your use is in the evening.
- Your roof faces south or west with little shade and won't need replacing soon.
- You plan to stay. Under net billing, the 9-year lock on export rates belongs to you, not the house (CPUC decision).
- Your utility credits exports well: LADWP, Pasadena and Glendale still net at or near retail. See utility rules.
When it may not
- Your bills are small, or most of your use is midday when you'd be exporting anyway.
- The roof is shaded or due for replacement (removing and reinstalling panels costs thousands).
- You may move within a few years.
- The quote assumes the federal tax credit, or compares against "rising rates" with no number behind it.
How to check a quote
- Compare quotes by price per watt (total price divided by system watts), not by monthly payment.
- Ask for the first-year savings on your rate plan (SCE TOU-D-PRIME or SDG&E EV-TOU-5 for new systems), hour by hour, not a flat "cents per kWh".
- Ask what share of your evening use the battery covers.
Checked against official sources on Oct 1, 2026. Sources are linked in the text. Not legal, tax or financial advice.